Preseason Rankings
Big Ten
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
8 Wisconsin 81.5%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 13 - 7 +15.7      +6.8 25 +8.9 3 60.4 335 0.0 1 0.0 1
9 Iowa 79.3%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 12 - 8 +15.7      +11.8 2 +3.9 70 72.9 75 0.0 1 0.0 1
10 Michigan St. 78.9%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 12 - 8 +15.5      +8.5 9 +7.0 17 71.0 113 0.0 1 0.0 1
13 Illinois 74.2%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 12 - 8 +15.0      +8.0 13 +7.0 16 65.2 272 0.0 1 0.0 1
17 Ohio St. 70.8%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 11 - 9 +14.3      +7.4 19 +6.9 21 64.9 280 0.0 1 0.0 1
19 Michigan 72.8%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 9 11 - 9 +14.2      +7.8 15 +6.4 24 69.9 144 0.0 1 0.0 1
24 Indiana 60.1%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 10 - 10 +13.3      +6.2 33 +7.1 13 68.2 201 0.0 1 0.0 1
28 Purdue 59.6%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 11 10 - 10 +12.3      +5.4 45 +6.9 22 61.8 329 0.0 1 0.0 1
33 Rutgers 47.2%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 11 9 - 11 +11.6      +4.4 63 +7.2 12 67.3 228 0.0 1 0.0 1
37 Minnesota 47.3%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 9 - 11 +11.2      +5.5 43 +5.7 40 66.3 246 0.0 1 0.0 1
39 Maryland 51.9%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 10 +11.0      +5.4 47 +5.6 42 66.9 237 0.0 1 0.0 1
62 Penn St. 32.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 13 8 - 12 +9.1      +4.8 59 +4.3 67 74.4 51 0.0 1 0.0 1
80 Northwestern 15.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 14 6 - 14 +7.0      +3.2 92 +3.8 77 65.4 265 0.0 1 0.0 1
113 Nebraska 6.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 17 5 - 15 +4.0      +2.4 112 +1.6 118 79.0 18 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Wisconsin 4.6 19.2 15.1 12.3 10.2 8.8 7.6 6.7 5.6 4.5 3.6 2.9 2.0 1.0 0.5
Iowa 5.3 15.2 12.1 10.9 10.2 9.3 8.2 7.4 6.5 5.9 4.7 4.0 3.0 1.9 0.8
Michigan St. 5.0 17.2 13.3 11.3 9.8 9.4 8.1 7.0 5.8 5.4 4.2 3.4 2.6 1.7 0.8
Illinois 5.0 16.4 13.3 11.6 9.9 9.4 8.3 7.1 6.2 5.4 4.2 3.3 2.4 1.6 0.8
Ohio St. 5.8 12.3 10.4 10.4 9.5 8.9 8.6 8.2 7.8 6.5 5.8 4.4 3.6 2.5 1.2
Michigan 5.7 12.7 11.3 10.2 9.8 8.7 8.5 7.7 7.0 6.6 5.4 4.6 3.7 2.7 1.3
Indiana 6.8 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.9 8.2 8.7 8.3 7.8 7.8 6.8 5.7 4.1 2.4
Purdue 6.6 7.9 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.0 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.4 5.7 3.8 2.3
Rutgers 7.8 4.8 5.6 6.3 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.7 8.4 8.7 8.6 9.1 7.9 6.9 4.4
Minnesota 7.8 4.5 5.3 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.2 9.2 8.1 6.4 4.0
Maryland 7.5 4.9 5.8 6.9 7.1 8.1 7.8 8.5 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.1 7.5 5.5 3.7
Penn St. 8.9 2.0 3.1 3.8 4.8 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.2 9.6 10.3 10.7 11.0 9.8 7.2
Northwestern 10.8 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.4 4.4 5.6 6.9 8.6 11.1 14.7 19.9 17.6
Nebraska 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.5 6.1 9.1 13.9 21.4 34.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Wisconsin 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.2 3.2 4.6 6.5 7.8 9.7 10.3 11.5 11.1 10.6 8.1 6.3 3.7 1.9 0.5
Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.4 9.3 9.9 10.8 10.8 9.7 8.6 7.0 4.7 2.7 1.3 0.4
Michigan St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.5 6.7 8.5 9.9 10.6 10.9 10.2 9.1 7.6 5.5 3.3 1.6 0.4
Illinois 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.7 5.5 7.0 9.0 10.2 10.9 10.7 10.4 9.2 7.5 5.4 3.0 1.3 0.5
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.7 7.1 8.4 10.0 10.6 10.4 10.3 9.1 7.4 5.5 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.3
Michigan 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.0 6.7 8.5 10.1 9.8 10.2 10.4 8.9 8.2 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.2
Indiana 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.1 5.8 7.4 9.1 9.6 10.3 10.4 9.4 8.3 7.2 5.3 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
Purdue 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.4 4.1 5.1 7.3 8.4 9.6 10.3 10.0 10.3 8.9 7.2 5.8 4.0 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1
Rutgers 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.4 6.4 7.5 9.1 9.5 10.7 9.5 8.7 8.3 7.1 5.3 3.7 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0
Minnesota 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.1 6.2 8.1 9.2 10.5 10.4 10.0 9.4 8.4 6.5 5.2 3.2 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Maryland 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.8 5.2 7.0 8.7 9.8 10.3 10.6 10.1 8.5 7.5 5.6 3.9 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
Penn St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.5 6.6 8.2 10.2 10.8 11.0 10.6 9.3 7.7 6.2 4.4 2.9 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 6 - 14 1.3 4.1 7.3 9.7 11.6 12.0 11.8 10.4 8.6 7.5 5.5 3.9 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 5 - 15 3.5 8.2 11.9 13.7 14.0 12.5 10.8 8.2 5.9 4.4 2.6 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wisconsin 19.2% 12.6 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
Iowa 15.2% 9.9 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
Michigan St. 17.2% 11.5 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Illinois 16.4% 10.6 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.1
Ohio St. 12.3% 7.8 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Michigan 12.7% 7.8 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Indiana 7.8% 4.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Purdue 7.9% 4.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 4.8% 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 4.5% 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Maryland 4.9% 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 2.0% 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.5% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wisconsin 81.5% 14.0% 67.5% 3   12.8 11.8 11.5 9.2 8.2 7.0 5.7 4.6 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 18.5 78.5%
Iowa 79.3% 12.9% 66.4% 3   13.0 11.8 10.7 9.5 8.5 6.6 5.1 3.9 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 20.7 76.2%
Michigan St. 78.9% 12.9% 66.0% 3   12.2 11.3 11.8 8.7 8.3 7.2 5.3 4.0 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 21.1 75.8%
Illinois 74.2% 11.5% 62.7% 3   9.3 9.6 10.5 8.3 7.9 7.3 5.3 4.4 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 25.8 70.8%
Ohio St. 70.8% 9.6% 61.2% 5   7.0 7.6 9.2 7.9 8.1 7.6 6.2 4.9 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 29.2 67.7%
Michigan 72.8% 9.6% 63.2% 4   7.9 9.0 9.0 8.3 7.9 7.1 5.8 4.7 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 27.2 69.9%
Indiana 60.1% 7.3% 52.9% 5   5.8 6.7 8.2 6.7 6.8 5.7 4.5 3.4 2.8 2.2 2.2 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 39.9 57.0%
Purdue 59.6% 6.2% 53.4% 7   4.1 5.0 6.4 6.0 6.4 6.5 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 40.4 56.9%
Rutgers 47.2% 4.7% 42.5% 7   3.0 3.8 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.0 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.2 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 52.8 44.6%
Minnesota 47.3% 4.2% 43.1% 8   2.1 3.1 4.3 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.4 4.5 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 52.7 45.0%
Maryland 51.9% 3.8% 48.1% 9   2.2 3.2 4.0 4.3 5.2 5.9 5.7 5.6 4.9 3.6 3.3 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 48.1 50.0%
Penn St. 32.1% 2.1% 30.0% 0.8 1.3 2.4 2.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 67.9 30.7%
Northwestern 15.5% 0.9% 14.6% 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 84.5 14.8%
Nebraska 6.4% 0.3% 6.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.6 6.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wisconsin 81.5% 3.2% 80.2% 63.1% 38.4% 21.5% 11.2% 5.7% 3.0%
Iowa 79.3% 3.2% 78.0% 61.6% 37.9% 20.9% 11.1% 6.0% 3.0%
Michigan St. 78.9% 3.2% 77.6% 60.8% 37.1% 20.5% 11.1% 5.8% 2.8%
Illinois 74.2% 3.8% 72.6% 54.8% 32.5% 18.0% 9.4% 4.9% 2.5%
Ohio St. 70.8% 3.5% 69.2% 51.1% 29.2% 15.4% 7.9% 3.9% 2.0%
Michigan 72.8% 4.0% 71.0% 52.1% 30.2% 15.9% 8.1% 4.1% 2.0%
Indiana 60.1% 4.8% 58.0% 42.4% 24.0% 12.2% 6.1% 2.8% 1.4%
Purdue 59.6% 4.1% 57.6% 39.0% 20.0% 9.9% 4.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Rutgers 47.2% 5.4% 44.9% 30.8% 15.8% 7.5% 3.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Minnesota 47.3% 3.8% 45.6% 29.6% 14.2% 6.6% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Maryland 51.9% 3.9% 49.9% 31.2% 14.5% 6.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Penn St. 32.1% 4.0% 30.2% 18.3% 8.1% 3.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Northwestern 15.5% 2.4% 14.4% 7.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Nebraska 6.4% 1.2% 5.7% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.8 0.0 0.1 1.9 10.5 26.9 35.3 19.3 5.3 0.6 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 7.5 0.0 0.2 3.0 13.8 30.7 33.2 15.3 3.5 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.3 16.3 28.7 28.0 15.2 4.7 0.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.0% 3.1 1.0 8.0 24.1 31.9 23.5 9.1 2.1 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 87.3% 1.6 12.7 35.6 34.1 14.5 2.9 0.2
Final Four 61.9% 0.8 38.1 45.1 15.1 1.7 0.0
Final Game 36.8% 0.4 63.2 33.6 3.2
Champion 19.7% 0.2 80.3 19.7